Ask anyone to define the Packers season this year in one word. It's pretty easy: injuries.
However, I'll offer up a phrase: close games.
The Packers have lost all six games by a combined 20 points, including two overtime losses in back to back weeks to the Washington Redskins at Washington and the Miami Dolphins at home. They lost to the NFC second-seeded Bears by three in week three and the NFC first-seeded Faclons by three in week 12. Then they had a pair of four-point losses to the Detroit Lions in Detroit and the AFC's top dog Patriots at Foxboro behind their second string quarterback Matt Flynn.
Even though the Packers have the sixth seed in the NFC playoffs and will have to play every game away from the friendly confines of Lambeau Field to make it to Arlington for Super Bowl XLV, the Packers have proven they can play with anyone in the NFL.
The X-factor? Winning close games.
The Packers have not been able to win many of the close games this season, which has led to their six losses. That will have to change starting this Sunday on Wild Card Weekend in their rematch with the Michael Vick-led Eagles.
Not to mention, the other factor that must change in the playoffs is the ability to run the football, which has been a major struggle this season after losing Ryan Grant in week 1.
I was interested in finding out what may have contributed to the Packers losses in close games. Upon further research, I found that the play calling on 3rd and short (3 yards or less) and some 4th and short situations ultimately led to some of the Packers losses. In fact, I would argue that the Packers season was defined on a couple of these said plays.
Ultimately, I found some surprising tendencies for the Packers in these situations.
The Packers have been faced with 87 total situations this season in 3rd and short or 4th and short with only 7 of those 4th and short. In 49 of these 87 plays (56.3%), the Packers have been in shotgun formation. In 45 of these 87 plays (51.7%), the Packers have not converted.
Furthermore, Aaron Rodgers and Matt Flynn have thrown it deep 18 times in this situation, resulting in only 7 completions, with two touchdowns and two interceptions.
Rodgers and Flynn have also been sacked a combined 6 times in these situations.
Now, some might say that the emergence of John Kuhn, the stereotypical brusing third-down back has had more value in the last couple weeks converting third downs.
In essence this is true. In the last four weeks of the season the Packers had 22 plays in 3rd or 4th and short. The Packers handed the ball of to Kuhn only four times. How many times did Kuhn convert? You guessed it. All four times.
In fact, the Packers were in shotgun formation in 14 of these plays and threw the ball ten times with only five completions, along with four sacks and one interception.
The Packers inability to keep drives alive along with Coach Mike McCarthy's infatuation with throwing the ball deep on 3rd and short situations could inhibit the Packers chances in the playoffs if they are unable to sustain drives. Kuhn has become somewhat of a reliable 3rd down and short back, but he can't convert if he isn't getting the opportunities.
As I said before I would argue that the Packers season has been defined by a couple of these plays, the first being week 12 against Atlanta. If the Packers get out of Atlanta with a win, who knows how the NFC would have shaped up for the playoffs.
On third and goal from the one, McCarthy called a QB sneak, which Rodgers subsequently fumbled into the end zone, and it was recovered by the Falcons in the end zone.
In week 14, it was the nearly catastrophic loss to Detroit that had people scratching their heads. With Rodgers out of the game with a concussion and the game on the line, Matt Flynn threw the ball deep into the end zone on 4th and 1 with just over a minute left in the game. The Packers obviously lost 7-3 in what could have been a disastrous outcome had the Packers not made the playoffs.
Then, in week 15, it was the debacle in New England with the 4th and 1 play in which Matt Flynn truly looked like a backup quarterback after having shined all game. On 4th and 1 from the New England 15, Flynn was sacked to end the game after some confusion about the play that was called.
I realize I have singled out Matt Flynn on two of these plays, but I believe the blame lands with McCarthy. If the Packers would have been able to win two out of these three games and if the plays would have been called a little differently in these situations, is it so outlandish to think the Packers could have wrapped up the NFC's number 2 seed and won the NFC North instead of the Chicago Bears?
I don't think so.
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